The brain is a complex system, yet too protective of us. Basically, it has been trained for years to filter out the unnecessary ones and feed us only the important things. I have read and written about the RAS how our brain picks up on what we give attention to. While I was reading this book called Fooled by Randomness (I had wanted to read this author’s work for a long time), the concept of the narrative fallacy came into the picture.
Everyone might know the act, but not the label. I am still in debate over whether labelling is necessary for everything. But the label helps us identify the things we were doing instinctively, and brings awareness. The brain, in order to protect us from bad outcomes, creates a false story around it. Let’s say something good happens. We might assume that good things will happen forever, without considering the uncertainty or the unhappened data points which could affect the entire graph. The outcome could be positive or negative. It filters out the rest and gives us only one version, as if that were the complete picture.
For eg. I am healthy, so I don’t need insurance is a narrative fallacy too. Forty years of not falling ill feels like evidence to oneself. But it is only evidence of the years that have already passed. The rare event gives us no warning.
I am still not sure about manifestation, but neuroplasticity, rewiring and doing the hard things can change the system. Focusing on the good things, or being slightly optimistic, would help us. In the end, exploring all the worst-case scenarios helps us forecast how much of the uncertainty can be absorbed. So, as Taleb says, be pessimistic in absorbing the risk and optimistic in the rest of life.
Take the example quoted in the book, that of John and Nero. Nero had the capacity to bear the risk, and John didn’t. But the beauty is that there are n number of Johns who are not affected by the randomness.
We can call it karma, the butterfly effect, nature or even God, the rare event and its occurrence are unpredictable. And this is where the narrative fallacy comes into the picture, where we create stories and narratives to stay inside.
It all takes a bit of awareness to absorb or handle the randomness. Otherwise, it is likely to be a disaster.
Cheers
PS: You never know!
Check out the previous post: On Purposes and Desires & DC Movie Review
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